Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 78398.344274 82789.592912 87179.408290 91893.868864 96810.444299 101783.364777 107190.201997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 70577.347081 77254.175982 84116.641500 91686.981822 99793.714940 108204.238419 117579.270707
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65976.402353 74276.049796 82992.585670 92808.585588 103533.703396 114875.017455 127753.146365
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 61436.332618 70846.666735 80912.784823 92447.242369 105263.367475 119031.354284 134904.197691
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 58916.925344 69354.078900 80694.717221 93881.975626 108742.497377 124917.934056 143802.034587
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 56451.255678 67710.334131 80119.201063 94741.110957 111427.597738 129804.258980 151497.957198
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 53823.089519 65707.102581 78980.301109 94814.776875 113097.219780 133449.214541 157720.277103
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 51355.427884 63747.829086 77763.360982 94677.393245 114419.428717 136615.947296 163335.546681
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 50250.242395 63305.149311 78234.538393 96435.196892 117881.770262 142204.576600 171722.265076
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 49229.748678 62894.229583 78685.149584 98120.562116 121226.469008 147643.391866 179944.594521
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 47797.163344 61915.574139 78400.331604 98880.457666 123440.601934 151741.364793 186599.292035
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 45934.841445 60337.085869 77328.070194 98635.018824 124407.811441 154337.237974 191466.962091
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 44450.664149 59196.026729 76769.962852 99010.521025 126139.842433 157883.156586 197538.190013
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 42853.479710 57859.688146 75927.254935 99001.242069 127382.248762 160837.778935 202918.243359
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 41977.061436 57390.564109 76120.537990 100237.686217 130124.615028 165590.783546 210473.355325
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 40379.705969 55947.164282 75050.338723 99862.329693 130853.432427 167887.646825 215054.529724
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 39773.909669 55748.939942 75519.144433 101390.288131 133923.636450 173033.949040 223116.896417
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38924.933494 55201.400102 75517.785735 102304.391514 136218.053106 177231.930086 230038.126975
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37748.437247 54184.579230 74882.091898 102382.812979 137442.924037 180102.327907 235331.001600
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36534.928925 53079.216148 74096.548808 102236.725767 138358.515060 182573.908414 240127.699047
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36246.484196 53194.218168 74882.314679 104105.912500 141831.840517 188240.038972 248918.207635
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 35943.177649 53273.810559 75611.448082 105897.681105 145211.775236 193806.556536 257618.631576
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 35251.472100 52802.159596 75596.360771 106705.429709 147323.605461 197784.959029 264349.431584